Posted by: distributorcap | October 16, 2008

Fun with Republican Math

Karl Rove & Co had the math in November 2006, and he has the math right now! (no ego there huh). Math we like this time.

Obama – 313 electoral votes (includes Florida, Virginia)
McCain – 174 electoral votes
Toss Up – 51 electoral votes (Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio)

but even better is the math of Bill O’Reilly at the Fix/Faux/Fuk News website

He has little pictures of each candidate and their tallies

McCain – 228 electoral votes
Obama – 200 electoral votes
Toss Up – 110 electoral votes

O’Reilly lists the following states as toss ups – Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida

First – virtually every other electoral polling website, including Republican oriented sites like electionprojection and coldheartedtruth, has 8-10 of the above states as either leaning or solid for Obama – especially Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Iowa and New Mexico have been safe Obama states all campaign. Hell, McCain has even pulled out of Michigan and Wisconsin.

Second (here comes the fun part of the O’Reilly Math) – lets give O’Reilly those 14 states as toss-ups. They equal 166 electoral votes.

So – something is amiss in the O’Reilly electoral college

McCain – 228 electoral votes
Obama – 200 electoral votes
Toss Up – 166 electoral votes

Total 594 electoral votes – somehow we got an additional 56 electoral votes. Are they from Manitoba? Venezuela? Jamaica? Iraq?

(in reality there is SO much wrong math on that O’Reilly electoral map, it just goes to show you – once a idiot Fox show host, always an idiot….)

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Responses

  1. Shit, if Iraq is indeed the 51st state, we’re going to need China to print up a lot of brand new Murkan flags.

  2. Oh so many years ago, when Bill was newly on A Current Affair, I used to have to go to channel 5 to work on their computer for the you-know-whats (Dcap knows). Bill’s desk was right next to where the computer station was and he was always rude.And he can’t add.

  3. There won’t be a quiz after this post will there?

  4. I tend to think that it’s in the news best interest to make the tallies as close as possible and the races seem as competitive as possible for rating’s sake.(Too bad it isn’t Manitoba. They are pretty left leaning.)

  5. Did anyone tell O’Really that the RNC–not just McCain–the fucking RNC is pulling ads in Maine and WISCONSIN???? This is going to be a rout. The only question is whether the republicans can cheat enough to keep the numbers of senate flips under 6 and house flips under 20.

  6. Well, we know where O’Reilly pulled those numbers out from.That’s all they do, ever…

  7. The 56 additional electoral votes go to the terrorists in Venezuela & Hugo Chavez…..And all those in the Joe-The-Plumber contingent.McCain will never live down the Joe the Plumber element of this debate…. it will go down in history & will be a comedy goldmine.

  8. OReilly must have seven toes.Oregon , California AND Washington, where I live, are in the bag for Obama.Have a nice day Bill. Idiot.

  9. Toss Up – 51 electoral votes (Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio)None of the reputable polling data supports these findings.North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio are in Obama’s column. Missouri is tied.After last night’s debate, my guess is, even Missouri will go Obama. McCain looked and sounded like he was ready for the psyche ward and a long, long rest.

  10. FranIAm, perhaps if you had spoken to Bill-O with more deference and offered him a loofah shower with a wink and a lick of your lips, he’d have given you the time of day.He’s an angry idiot.No wonder he loves McCain so much.Soulmates.

  11. Okay… I’m going to use a name here, but it appears to me that Bill O is acting like a Barbie Doll. Math is really hard for him. Let’s cut him some slack. ;^)

  12. Bill O’Reilly is a pinhead.

  13. Boy, you got that right (you know, the “idiot” part, that is)….

  14. Desperation math.

  15. Manitoba! Ha! Evil Canadians! I knew they were coming across the border for evil intent! Let’s build a wall!! I just didn’t realize that all 56 of the folks in Manitoba got an electoral vote!?

  16. If it’s on Fox, it has to be Spew, I mean True.Fuzzy math, where have we seen that before?

  17. I don’t know how Billo’s reasoning process works. I only know how mine works. I recopy here a comment to Torrance at RawDawgBuffalo rawdawgb.blogspot.comOn his “Iceman” post about “The Bradley Effect”. The difference between Billo and me is that I was willing to back my opinion with a lot of money and was prepared to smile if I won and pay if I lost.UPDATE: The best you can get with Obama over McCain is OBAMA-714 which impounds an 88% chance of an Obama victory.My comment….JONES: You know how I think. I have my opinions of course but at rock bottom I’m certainly not a partisan. I surrendered my US vote at the first opportunity in protest at the way I was treated by the government when I had violated no law, no bullshit finesses either. I was straight. There were two American political organizations who tried to stop this from happening: the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Progressive Causes (+ Republicans Ron Paul, Jeff Flake and Tom Campbell). Three cheers for their fine efforts! And Nancy Pelosi can piss up a rope. Vile woman.Neither Obama nor McCain, however, will fix this for me. Nor will whoever is president in 2012. Nor most likely whoever is president in 2016. President Martin Torrijos’s government, however, said “if you’re a net contributor to our economy, come here and live in peace as one of us.” Done.So what happens up is important to me only in that when the US messes up it really messes up. The US never improves things for other countries or for its own people for that matter.I have a very strong preference for Obama, however, for a multitude of reasons, most practical. Only the insanity of McCain and Palin make that preference in any way ideological. They are dangerous.My idea here is to establish my bona fides as a Cartesian with — as I’ll explain — a large personal material financial stake in the outcome. That it coincides with what I believe to be right and wrong is happenstance.Once Clinton conceded, I used a series of non-autocorrelated factors to determine the right price of the Obama v McCain election and adjusted it a bit for a few events in July which had an impact and then the VP selection.That price was -295. Meaning if I had to risk $2.95 to make a $1 profit betting Obama and they ran the election 100,000,000 times I’d have ZERO GAIN, ZERO LOSS. I checked what was available on the screens in the Caribbean, in Venezuela, in Europe, Australia and Hong Kong. OBAMA-275 was the number pretty much everywhere. No bet. The market had gotten the price right. OK, on to the next project.But then the convention started and it got interesting. The interesting parts were the presentations by Michelle Obama to open and Barack Obama to close. These were both very fine speeches, hers perhaps more striking because he’s well known for being a brilliant speaker. I was glad they’d acquitted themselves so well because I wanted him to win. Then, something hit me funny about it. What made them impressive to me, I began to think, could be a huge problem for Obama in the election if McCain picked anyone other than Romney. An Obama/Biden v McCain/Romney election, I assumed, would be a very serious issues-oriented contest which Obama would probably win small. And the market price would adjust to reflect that choice.The problem was that practically all of White America saw their worst nightmare in that couple and in their speeches. They saw two very very bright, sophisticated and PATRICIAN African-Americans on the world’s main stage. The last thin reed a morally and financially bankrupt subset of America had been hanging on to was gone. “Oh shit, I’m seeing Black people who have nothing to do with the arts, entertainment or sports who are superior to me in every way,” a huge segment of the electorate I imagined was thinking. The worst nightmare. Black Americans who demonstrated a kind of class and bearing associated with FDR or Eliot Richardson or Kay Graham or Dorothy Chandler. Every assumption, image, and cliche of Black Americans was blown to smithereens that week.Some fool like Hannity had said a couple of months before “how’s Michelle Obama going to meet Queen Elizabeth ha ha ha”. What that whole tableaux at the convention showed was that the question was “How can Queen Elizabeth possibly measure up to Michelle Obama’s stature.” Interesting shit. I began to think that if I’d read Whites right, Obama not only wasn’t going to get a bounce he was going to sink like a rock in the polls out of pure anger and envy.A perfect read on my part. No bounce. And before the Republican convention started, money only showed for McCain. With the postponement of the convention and the naming of Palin, the price had dropped to OBAMA-190. A decent number to play at but I still wanted to see how Palin would work out because the right-wing blogs were beside themselves happy. I wait. Palin gives her speech and while I think it’s appalling, the reception by the media is like Joan Of Arc had ridden in. OBAMA-150. Oooh, tempting now. Still, the disconnect between what I’d observed and how the media reacted combined with the very opposite style of Obama and how poorly that had gone over gave me pause. I waited some more.Palinmania in full effect. OBAMA-130. At this point, I have to make a decision because at the market price versus my price, I’m supposed to be a large amount of money on Obama. By the Markowitz Frontier or the Jensen Measure, anyway. Dr Markowitz however was not going to be voting from six feet under ground, however. A whole lot of the kind of fat, rude, loud, fanny-pack gringos I’d see playing slot machines in the casino when I was on my way to the cardroom were going to decide this and I knew whom they preferred. My partner was wondering if maybe we shouldn’t just lay the -130 with Obama and be done with it. It was a logical move but I then saw the world polls. 93% favored Obama 7% McCain of 10,000 polled world-wide. It was 99%-1% in Panama. This just felt weird. Obama was sinking in the nationwide US poll and on the electoral map in the face of this. So, I said to him “this is too weird…this could be the sickest racist bullshit we’ll ever observe in our lives I don’t know at this point McCain could run away with it…let’s compromise…I got a heuristic on how to handle this so we get a good number to bet at and we’re on Obama way before the polls begin to reflect reality. I think Obama’s going to win but I won’t be sure until there’s a pause in this fuckin Palinmania.” MY HEURISTIC: I didn’t want to try to guess the bottom. I’d bet at the number one big move off the bottom. It came on the Sunday night before the Monday 11AM when the Wall Street crisis became news. My partner and I were IM-ing about other business and I was watching one of the Irish screens. He IM’d me that the Singapore market had opened way, way down in stocks and external debt. About 10 minutes later, somebody on the Irish screen took Obama-117 for 50,000 Euros. It jumped to Obama -128/McCain+123. I said to him “just go bet Obama now at the best price for all you can get in.” Sharp guy. He found a spot in Costa Rica where everyone had gone home but they were taking money on the screen and had OBAMA-125 no limit. We shoved it in at that number until the computer froze us out and went to automatic shutoff!All the screens were dead for the week while the news was all about the crisis in the US. I stayed up until the Singapore opening and kept myself awake at my desk until the House rejected the first bailout. At that point trading resumed in the election and it opened OBAMA-169. I called my partner. We both agreed we’d never see a better price and so we hit that number everywhere until it wasn’t available anymore and the next number was OBAMA-190.And on the English screen as of two minutes ago it was OBAMA-500 with 13 million sterling of open interest just on that one spot! This is a pretty good sign that the market participants are making the probability of an OBAMA WIN 83.4%One of my better trades! My partner and I, two useless nobodies, really rocked the world at OBAMA-125 and OBAMA-169.When it gets to OBAMA-950, I might close it out and take my profit because there’s something out there called “The Executive Continuity Order Of May 2007”. This gives Bush the sole authority to postpone the election in the event of a “crisis”. If you’re paranoid about something, dont’ be paranoid about dumbfuck white voters. Obama’s gin to win this thing if the election goes. It’ll be a landslide. I put him easy on 369 electors and with some luck he could make 400.BE PARANOID ABOUT GEORGE W BUSH POSTPONING THE ELECTION AND USING THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AS HIS CASSUS.JEEZ, I MIGHT WASH IT OUT AT OBAMA-800!A look into the mind of a pragmatist for what it’s worth.October 14, 2008 2:40 AM

  18. Kelso is a hard act to to follow.

  19. Kelso, baby, that’s enough caffeine for one day.;)

  20. Backing up Bustednuckles, I can tell you that Oregon is Obama’s. I can’t tell you how many people have said, I used to vote Republican, but I’ll never vote for one again. Two that I know pretty well, are (sorry, John) small business owners. And for each time I’ve heard that comment, “never again,” I hear other liberals telling their own stories of hearing it teo or three times.But I keep telling people not be complacent all the same.

  21. I hear Obama is going to run for premier of Manitoba when he is done with this gig 🙂

  22. ZIP: I don’t drink coffee. I drink hot cocoa, but I do live 120 miles from Medellin, Colombia, as the crow flies so draw your own conclusions.

  23. My numbers from last Sunday: Obama 369, McCain 169. And not to brag too much, but my numbers add up to 538.Things have moved slightly in McCain’s favor as of Thursday night, as Ohio moved from Obama to toss-up, but right now, McCain could win OH, PA and FL and still lose.The odds as of Sunday: If the election were held last Sunday, Obama would have been a 3,000-1 favorite.Tune in to the Sunday Numbers at lotsasplainin.blogspot.com to find out the straight dope. I keep track of the jillion polls so you don’t have to.Do I know math better than these other guys running the numbers? Yeah, maybe a lil bit.

  24. @ Matty Boy: I was going to check out your pricing of the election on your blog but I got caught up in the fun of UNDERSQUID’s idea of George Clooney as Paul Krugman in the eoonomics thriller.Heading over there now. 3000/1-on sounds very high to me with at least 100,000,000 sterling of open interest in public futures markets, god knows how much in cash markets and privately. Those outs all have Obama between 7/1-on and 8/1-on. The 538 site a few days ago made Obama 12/1-on.So, I was thinking that maybe you meant that it was a 3000/1-on favorite that the polling was reliable, meaning there was only a 1/3001 chance that the RESULTS of the POLLING were accidental. It’s still a random variable with enough variance to keep it from being silly. I could be wrong though. It may haved moved a lot since earlier today.We both put him on 369 electors and I can tell clear as day that you know exactly what you’re doing.

  25. Randal – there was a time Pakistan was considered the 51st state – seriously. When the SEATO treaty was in effect.Franiam – you were near o’reilly – did you get a tetanus shotSuze – yes there is always a pop quiz, spelling countsToujour – I would bet most of Canada is more left that places like Alabama and OklahomaPINY – I wont be at peace until I see that 270 on the board – hopefully by 915p on 11/4Dave d- you saw the shit stains too near the O’R numbersFran – joe the plumber will go down in election histoy – as will the Palin pick. Busted – o’reilly has 7 toes, and no brainChristopher – In the gut I feel we will see some surprises flip D – like Montana, Georgia or North Dakota. Kz – I can still smell the O’reilly stink from the WNYW studios on 67th streetSpart – o’reilly knew how much he had to pay off the women he harassedBeckeye – pinhead is being kindDick – lolDg – the new math – even my father laughed at this post – Ok – Manitoba is the new Oregon or something like that. I bet Winnepeg is a nice city;1138 – for an organization that calls Mark Foley a D – I would expect lousy mathkelso – bottom line, can I get a cut of the winnings LOLutah – a very hard act to follow LOLlockwood – a guy I know still thinks mccain is gonna win New York….. ich – you guys in Canada DO NOT want himkelso – hot cocoa or hot coca…….. matty – I trust your math over anyone else’skelso – so do I hit on 16 if the dealer is showing a 10

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